The Signal and the Noise

The Signal and the Noise Author Nate Silver
ISBN-10 9781101595954
Release 2012-09-27
Pages 544
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One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller “Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.” —New York Times Book Review "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." —New York Review of Books Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read. From the Trade Paperback edition.



The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes

The Signal and the Noise    in 30 Minutes Author
ISBN-10 1623150523
Release 2012-11-01
Pages 46
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The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.



The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes The Expert Guide to Nate Silver s Critically Acclaimed Book the 30 Minute Expert Series

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes   The Expert Guide to Nate Silver s Critically Acclaimed Book  the 30 Minute Expert Series Author The 30 Minute Expert Series
ISBN-10 162315121X
Release 2013-03-29
Pages 32
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For a complete understanding of Nate Silver's Signal and the Noise, we strongly encourage you to purchase the original book titled The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't by Penguin Publishing Big data has arrived! Whether you're using that data to make a billion-dollar decision to merge two companies or to choose a team to win the World Series, how do you distinguish the signal (the truth) from the noise (our all-too-human impulse to make choices based on personal bias)? In his groundbreaking work The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver brings the complexities of statistics down to earth by using real-life examples of how we all make predictions and why those predictions are often wrong. The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is your expert guide to Nate Silver's main thesis that our decision making is filtered through our personal assumptions and beliefs as opposed to the truth of the data at hand. This concise companion details: * Nate Silver's journey from forecasting Major League Baseball players' performance to predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections * Both praise for and critical reactions to his ideas from such noted sources as the New York Review of Books and the Wall Street Journal * Key concepts, including analyzing prediction failures, practicing Bayesian thinking, and expanding self-awareness * Key terms, such as Bayes's theorem, with easy-to-understand definitions and examples * Recommended readings and a bibliography listing additional resources analyzing Silver's work and the phenomenon of big data The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is a timely guide to a topic that affects all our lives. From choosing stocks, to predicting wars, to making personal changes in light of climate change, The Signal and the Noise challenges both nations and individuals to make smarter choices. About the 30 Minute Expert Series Offering a concise exploration of a book's ideas, history, application, and critical reception, the 30 Minute Expert Series is designed for busy individuals interested in acquiring an in-depth understanding of seminal works. More than just a summary, the 30 Minute Expert Series offers detailed analysis, critical presentation of key ideas and their application, extensive reading lists for additional information, and a contextual understanding of the work of leading authors. Designed as a companion to the original work, the 30 Minute Expert Series enables readers to develop expert knowledge of an important work ... in 30 minutes.



The Soul of A New Machine

The Soul of A New Machine Author Tracy Kidder
ISBN-10 9780316204552
Release 2011-08-23
Pages 293
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Pulitzer Prize winner Tracy Kidder memorably records the drama, comedy, and excitement of one company's efforts to bring a new microcomputer to market. Computers have changed since 1981, when The Soul of a New Machine first examined the culture of the computer revolution. What has not changed is the feverish pace of the high-tech industry, the go-for-broke approach to business that has caused so many computer companies to win big (or go belly up), and the cult of pursuing mind-bending technological innovations. The Soul of a New Machine is an essential chapter in the history of the machine that revolutionized the world in the twentieth century.



Signal to Noise

Signal to Noise Author Silvia Moreno-Garcia
ISBN-10 1781082995
Release 2015-02-10
Pages 272
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A literary fantasy about love, music and sorcery, set against the background of Mexico City. Mexico City, 1988: Long before iTunes or MP3s, you said “I love you” with a mixtape. Meche, awkward and fifteen, has two equally unhip friends -- Sebastian and Daniela -- and a whole lot of vinyl records to keep her company. When she discovers how to cast spells using music, the future looks brighter for the trio. With help from this newfound magic, the three friends will piece together their broken families, change their status as non-entities, and maybe even find love... Mexico City, 2009: Two decades after abandoning the metropolis, Meche returns for her estranged father’s funeral. It’s hard enough to cope with her family, but then she runs into Sebastian, and it revives memories from her childhood she thought she buried a long time ago. What really happened back then? What precipitated the bitter falling out with her father? And, is there any magic left?



Signal Noise

Signal   Noise Author John Griesemer
ISBN-10 9781429961301
Release 2004-04-01
Pages 640
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Signal & Noise is the epic page-turning story of the laying of the trans-Atlantic cable, and the men and women who are caught in its monumental tide. It is also a novel about the collision of worlds seen and unseen: the present and the future; the living and the dead; the real and the imagined. On a wet London morning in 1857, American engineer Chester Ludlow arrives on the muddy banks of the Isle of Dogs to witness the launch of the largest steamship ever built, the Great Eastern. Also amidst the tumultuous throng is Jack Trace, a lonely bachelor and sketch artist hoping to make his name as an illustrator and journalist in the hurly burly of Fleet Street. Other witnesses include a drunken German by the name of Marx; the child who will christen the massive vessel by the wrong name; and Isambard Kingdom Brunel, the ship's apoplectic and dwarfish architect who will soon die in ignominy. As chief engineer for the Atlantic Cable Company, the charismatic Chester enters the orbit of business and showmanship embodied by J. Beaumol Spude, the bombastic Western beef magnate who will mastermind the funding of the project; Joachim Lindt, creator of the Phantasmagorium, an animated tableaux vivant; and his beautiful wife, the musician Katerina Lindt. Drawn by the demands and adventure of creating the first transoceanic telegraph, Chester leaves behind his fragile wife, Franny, at the family estate of Willing Mind in Maine. Abandoned and still mourning the accidental death of their four-year-old daughter, Franny finds solace in the company of Chester's troubled brother, Otis, who introduces her to the mysteries of the world of spiritualism just as séancing is becoming all the rage in the jittery times leading up to the Civil War. As Chester achieves renown as the glamorous engineer of the trans-Atlantic project, Franny, desperate to contact her dead child, becomes the preeminent spirit conjuror of a war-torn America.



Signal and Noise

Signal and Noise Author Brian Larkin
ISBN-10 0822341085
Release 2008-03-31
Pages 313
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DIVExamines the role of media technologies in shaping urban Africa through an ethnographic study of popular culture in northern Nigeria./div



Superforecasting

Superforecasting Author Philip E. Tetlock
ISBN-10 9780804136709
Release 2015-09-29
Pages 352
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A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." —Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. From the Hardcover edition.



Noise and Vibration Analysis

Noise and Vibration Analysis Author Anders Brandt
ISBN-10 0470978112
Release 2011-03-29
Pages 464
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Noise and Vibration Analysis is a complete and practical guide that combines both signal processing and modal analysis theory with their practical application in noise and vibration analysis. It provides an invaluable, integrated guide for practicing engineers as well as a suitable introduction for students new to the topic of noise and vibration. Taking a practical learning approach, Brandt includes exercises that allow the content to be developed in an academic course framework or as supplementary material for private and further study. Addresses the theory and application of signal analysis procedures as they are applied in modern instruments and software for noise and vibration analysis Features numerous line diagrams and illustrations Accompanied by a web site at www.wiley.com/go/brandt with numerous MATLAB tools and examples. Noise and Vibration Analysis provides an excellent resource for researchers and engineers from automotive, aerospace, mechanical, or electronics industries who work with experimental or analytical vibration analysis and/or acoustics. It will also appeal to graduate students enrolled in vibration analysis, experimental structural dynamics, or applied signal analysis courses.



Electronic Noise and Interfering Signals

Electronic Noise and Interfering Signals Author Gabriel Vasilescu
ISBN-10 9783540265108
Release 2006-01-17
Pages 709
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Electronic Noise and Interfering Signals is a comprehensive reference book on noise and interference in electronic circuits, with particular focus on low-noise design. The first part of the book deals with mechanisms, modelling, and computation of intrinsic noise which is generated in every electronic device. The second part analyzes the coupling mechanisms which can lead to a contamination of circuits by parasitic signals and provides appropriate solutions to this problem. The last part contains more than 100 practical, elaborate case studies. The book requires no advanced mathematical training as it introduces the fundamental methods. Moreover, it provides insight into computational noise analysis with SPICE and NOF, a software developed by the author. The book addresses designers of electronic circuits as well as researchers from electrical engineering, physics, and material science. It should also be of interest for undergraduate and graduate students.



The Hedgehog and the Fox

The Hedgehog and the Fox Author Isaiah Berlin
ISBN-10 9781400846634
Release 2013-06-02
Pages 144
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"The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." This ancient Greek aphorism, preserved in a fragment from the poet Archilochus, describes the central thesis of Isaiah Berlin's masterly essay on Leo Tolstoy and the philosophy of history, the subject of the epilogue to War and Peace. Although there have been many interpretations of the adage, Berlin uses it to mark a fundamental distinction between human beings who are fascinated by the infinite variety of things and those who relate everything to a central, all-embracing system. Applied to Tolstoy, the saying illuminates a paradox that helps explain his philosophy of history: Tolstoy was a fox, but believed in being a hedgehog. One of Berlin's most celebrated works, this extraordinary essay offers profound insights about Tolstoy, historical understanding, and human psychology. This new edition features a revised text that supplants all previous versions, English translations of the many passages in foreign languages, a new foreword in which Berlin biographer Michael Ignatieff explains the enduring appeal of Berlin's essay, and a new appendix that provides rich context, including excerpts from reviews and Berlin's letters, as well as a startling new interpretation of Archilochus's epigram.



Stopping the Noise in Your Head

Stopping the Noise in Your Head Author Reid Wilson
ISBN-10 9780757319075
Release 2016-05-03
Pages 384
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Of course, worry can be an important asset when it forces our attention on problem-solving. But anxious worrying can cause us to unnecessarily focus on threat, to retreat and avoid, and to seek reassurance and safety—which is no way to foster a life of growth and excitement. In his fifth published book, Dr. Reid Wilson proposes a groundbreaking, paradoxical approach to overcoming anxiety and worry by moving away from comfort, confidence, and security and willingly moving toward uncertainty, distress and discomfort. Through the use of unconventional strategies, readers will learn how to confront anxiety head-on and step forward into the face of threat. Drawing on a range of sources—from firefighters and fitness instructors to Sir Isaac Newton and Muhammad Ali—Stopping the Noise in Your Head demonstrates the importance of shifting our perspective and stepping toward our challenges in order to regain control of our lives.



The Journey and the Voice the Signal and the Noise

The Journey   and the Voice  the Signal and the Noise Author Vijay Baldev Mehra
ISBN-10 1468036297
Release 2012-03-01
Pages 248
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As Amar starts his journey, he has no idea that this “little journey” is going to give him insights into the big one, the journey of life. Throughout the flight, Amar zones in and out of scenes from his life—his highly successful career, his successes and failures as a human being. And for the first time, he starts to listen to the voice and fathom its deep and unshakable wisdom. He had heard the voice many times before in his life, but he was not listening then. He listens now. And he learns of the signal. And the noise. And their interplay. And he develops uncanny insights into the journey, the big one—the Journey of Life. He learns to appreciate it, to live it, to love it for all its beauty. All its promise. And all its imperfections. And the voice speaks again to Amar, saying, “Remember, it's all good…This is all good.” Meant to start a process of inquiry, rather than to supply any concrete answers, The Journey…and the Voice, the Signal and the Noise may prompt readers to look deeper into their own lives. Says the author, “I hope, after reading my novel, that readers feel warmer, bigger, and a little more whole.” “Three Stars…a pleasant read.” --ForeWord Reviews “Readers searching for spiritual beginnings will find a soft launching pad here.” --Kirkus Reviews “Here is humor and wisdom and much that those of us who have made the same journey will identify with. I recommend it to anyone who is looking for insights into the experience of “growing up”, about the life trajectory of a high flying ivy-league educated professional, and to those who would simply like a good laugh!” Abhishek Bhartia Director Sitaram Bhartia Institute of Science & Research New Delhi India “The Journey…and the Voice, the Signal and the Noise is an entertaining and enlightening metaphorical trip from the ego to the spiritual. As he reflects upon his past, Amar realizes that the experiences he considered detours in life were actually the true journey. This is a “Journey” that is utterly relatable, often humorous, and ultimately intellectually and emotionally satisfying.” Alexander A. Lach, Ph.D. Beverly Hills, CA USA “Mr. Mehra elicits the inner soul in each of us through this book as he helps us understand that life is not a destination...but in essence a journey. Within each milestone that Amar takes in this book, Mr. Mehra teaches us how to best live our own unique lives and differentiate what is important to each of us (signal) and what just passes as everyday life (noise) that we need to deal with, but not be fixated on. I would recommend this book to anyone who believes that the 'fast track' is the sole purpose in life and is looking at an approach to be better grounded. Mr. Mehra's insightful story teaches us what the right path might be...but we have to find it in ourselves.” Joel C. Polakoff Senior Partner CSC Healthcare Chicago, IL USA AUDIO BOOK: Select Chapters on You Tube PRESS RELEASES: PR NewsChannel Homepagehttp://www.prnewschannel.com/2012/08/14/man-discovers-magic-of-life-journey-in-new-introspective-novel-on-love-life-being-human/ NewBookreleases.us http://newbookreleases.us/book/man-discovers-magic-of-life-journey-in-new-introspective-novel-on-love-life-being-human/ CBS Marketwatchhttp://markets.cbsnews.com/cbsnews/news/read/22030759 Boston Globe http://finance.boston.com/boston/news/read?GUID=22030759 The Sacramento Beehttp://markets.financialcontent.com/mi.sacbee/news/read/22030759 The San Francisco Chroniclehttp://finance.sfgate.com/hearst.sfgate/news/read/22030759 WLS (ABC) Chicagohttp://finance.abc7chicago.com/abclocal.wls/news/read?GUID=22030759 The Columbus Dispatch http://markets.dispatch.com/columbusdispatch/news/read/22030759 Minnesota Public Radio News http://finance.mpr.org/mpr/news/read/22030759



The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes

The Signal and the Noise    in 30 Minutes Author
ISBN-10 9781623150532
Release 2012-11-20
Pages
Download Link Click Here

The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.



Numbers Rule Your World The Hidden Influence of Probabilities and Statistics on Everything You Do

Numbers Rule Your World  The Hidden Influence of Probabilities and Statistics on Everything You Do Author Kaiser Fung
ISBN-10 9780071745413
Release 2010-02-19
Pages 224
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WHAT ARE THE ODDS YOU'LL WIN THE LOTTERY? How long will your kids wait in line at Disney World? Who decides that “standardized tests” are fair? Why do highway engineers build slow-moving ramps? What does it mean, statistically, to be an “Average Joe”? NUMBERS RULE YOUR WORLD In the popular tradition of eye-opening bestsellers like Freakonomics, The Tipping Point, and Super Crunchers, this fascinating book from renowned statistician and blogger Kaiser Fung takes you inside the hidden world of facts and figures that affect you every day, in every way. These are the statistics that rule your life, your job, your commute, your vacation, your food, your health, your money, and your success. This is how engineers calculate your quality of living, how corporations determine your needs, and how politicians estimate your opinions. These are the numbers you never think about-even though they play a crucial role in every single aspect of your life. What you learn may surprise you, amuse you, or even enrage you. But there's one thing you won't be able to deny: Numbers Rule Your World... "An easy read with a big benefit." —Fareed Zakaria, CNN "For those who have anxiety about how organization data-mining is impacting their world, Kaiser Fung pulls back the curtain to reveal the good and the bad of predictive analytics." —Ian Ayres,Yale professor and author of Super Crunchers: Why Thinking By Numbers is the New Way to Be Smart "A book that engages us with stories that a journalist would write, the compelling stories behind the stories as illuminated by the numbers, and the dynamics that the numbers reveal." —John Sall, Executive Vice President, SAS Institute "Little did I suspect, when I picked up Kaiser Fung's book, that I would become so entranced by it - an illuminating and accessible exploration of the power of statistical analysis for those of us who have no prior training in a field that he explores so ably." —Peter Clarke, author of Keynes: The Rise, Fall, and Return of the 20th Century's Most Influential Economist "A tremendous book. . . . If you want to understand how to use statistics, how to think with numbers and yet to do this without getting lost in equations, if you've been looking for the book to unlock the door to logical thinking about problems, well, you will be pleased to know that you are holding that book in your hands." —Daniel Finkelstein, Executive Editor, The Times of London "I thoroughly enjoyed this accessible book and enthusiastically recommend it to anyone looking to understand and appreciate the role of statistics and data analysis in solving problems and in creating a better world." —Michael Sherman, Texas A&M University, American Statistician



Signal

Signal Author Stephen Few
ISBN-10 1938377052
Release 2015-05-01
Pages 225
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Teaches the analytical skills necessary to glean value from the warehouses of accumulating data In this age of so-called Big Data, organizations are scrambling to implement new software and hardware to increase the amount of data they collect and store. However, in doing so they are unwittingly making it harder to find the needles of useful information in the rapidly growing mounds of hay. If you don't know how to differentiate signals from noise, adding more noise only makes things worse. When we rely on data for making decisions, how do we tell what qualifies as a signal and what is merely noise? In and of itself, data is neither. Assuming that data is accurate, it is merely a collection of facts. When a fact is true and useful, only then is it a signal. When it's not, it's noise. It's that simple. In "Signal," Stephen Few provides the straightforward, practical instruction in everyday signal detection that has been lacking until now. Using data visualization methods, he teaches how to apply statistics to gain a comprehensive understanding of one's data and adapts the techniques of Statistical Process Control in new ways to detect not just changes in the metrics but also changes in the patterns that characterize data.



Signal to Noise

Signal to Noise Author Eric S. Nylund
ISBN-10 0380792923
Release 1999-06-01
Pages 400
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Jack Potter puts computer cryptography to work for the highest bidder: sometimes for private corporations, sometimes for the government. Sometimes the work is legal; if not, Jack simply raises his price. But one day, Jack discovers something cloaked in the hiss of background radiation streaming past the Earth from deep space: a message from an alien civilization. One that's eager to do business with humanity -- and its representative. Before he knows it, Jack has entered into a partnership that will open a Pandora's Box of potential profit and loss. The governments, the multinationals, and mysterious players more powerful still, all want a piece of the action -- and they're willing to kill, even wage war, to get it. Now Jack is entangled shifting web of deceit and intrigue in which no one, not even his closest friends, can be trusted. For Earth's cloak-and-dagger business practices are writ large in the heavens...and hostile takeovers are just as common across light years as they are across boardroom tables.